cobolhacker.com

2008/1/29

Vista Fat and Slow? That’s Unpossible!

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 21:49

The mainstream media are starting to wake up to something I already know.

This could explain why Microsoft is planning to release the next version of Windows in 2009. They say it will be smaller — by an order of magnitude. Perhaps they’ve noticed a problem?

The transition to Windows Vista seems to have caused a lot of angst amongst users, but I think has far more to do with moving out of the Windows XP comfort zone, rather than any indication of Vista’s quality or stability.

Actually, it had more to do with not wanting to waste your life waiting for your computer to do something than it does with security or stability. A base install of XP at least loads quickly on five year old hardware. This is important, because unlike hardware reviewers, most of us can’t afford to buy a new computer every year.

The fact that there are people out there trying to hack it down to a more reasonable size and speed sort of proves my point.

2008/1/27

Saying Goodbye to the Old Shop

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 22:01

The new shop is a new chapter for me, and that’s good, but at the same time, seeing the old shop empty makes me sad.

The empty front area.

There’s this saying: if you stay in one place too long you become that place. I’ve spent a considerable portion of my life here for the last eight years. It’s always been a shabby yet functional kind of a deal, sort of like me. It was my place and my shop. The effort and the work to make a living in this cutthroat business… I’ve outlasted numerous competitors over the years and this was the location that let me do it. I feel I owe it something, I don’t know why.

So much time. So many people.

I can still see them when I close my eyes, working there at the benches in the lab, my apprentices, my former partner, my friends. The times we had there working away, happy to be hacking, happy to be up to our elbows in sharp, filthy, dangerous, wonderful technology. The burnouts, the frustration, the perfection, the retina detaching hacks… lots of great memories.

They all needed to move on and I’m alone now. But I still remember the good times like they were yesterday. Maybe I dwell too much in yesterday.

A customer once described the clutter he saw in the lab as “passion”. He was more right than he knew. It was eight years worth of mental clutter, perfectly organized. An extension of my mind into the physical world. I think the new shop will get there too, but it’s going to take a while to really get the passion back. The component parts of the old shop are still around of course, but strewn around the new shop in unfamiliar and disquieting ways. The rooms of the old shop are also still down there, but they’re empty and barren and they haunt me when I see them so.

And that makes me sad.

The empty lab.

Thanks to my mates who helped make the move happen. I asked for muscle and that’s exactly what I got. Thank you.

2008/1/23

I Agree

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 22:37

You click “I Agree” pretty well every time you install a software package these days. Ever wondered what those words you didn’t read said?

EN

This End-User License Agreement is a legal agreement between you and the Big Greedy Software Company for the use of the software (hereafter referred to as the “Product”). You are bound to the terms of this agreement at all times and we reserve the right to change the terms at any time for no particular reason and not inform you.

By accepting this End-User License Agreement (referred to hereafter as the EULA), you give up all rights you think you have as they pertain to the use of the Product and agree to have them replaced with the agreement The Big Greedy Software Company (the “Company”) has specified below.

1. GRANT OF LICENSE
The Company reserves all rights not expressly granted to you in this EULA and grants you no other specific rights. You are granted the right to install the Product on one computer. You may also use the Product on that computer, but only if you have paid for the current year’s version of the Product at a price determined by the Company a random number of days before the end of the previous year.

2. LIMITATIONS ON USE
You may not copy, duplicate, backup, upload, share, loan, lease, sell, resell, sublet, sub-license, give, transfer, auction, recycle, export, reverse engineer, snort, disassemble, decompile, inspect, question, ponder or criticize the Product, or do anything we don’t approve of with it. You may not eat the Product, even as part of a dare.

3. TERMINATION
Without prejudice to any other rights, the Company may cancel this EULA for no reason whatsoever, in which case you must erase the Product entirely from your computer, destroy all copies of the Product and all of its component parts and never speak of it again.

4. WARRANTY AND LIMITATION OF REMEDIES
No representation of statements regarding capacity, suitability for use, or performance of the product shall be deemed to be a warranty by the Company, nor shall it give rise to any liability or obligation of the Company. No other warranty is offered for the product and we will assume no liability for the fitness of it for any given task, including the tasks you thought it would do. Accepting this agreement means you accept what we give you, even if it doesn’t work. The Company also accepts no liability for the safety of the Product, its components, and its upgrades, even if it makes your keyboard explode and blows your fingers off. By clicking Agree, you absolve the Company from any liability arising from mental or bodily harm that results from the use of the product.

IN NO EVENT SHALL THE COMPANY OR ITS SUPPLIERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS OR CONFIDENTIAL OR OTHER INFORMATION, FOR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION, FOR PERSONAL INJURY, FOR LOSS OF PRIVACY, FOR FAILURE TO MEET ANY DUTY INCLUDING OF GOOD FAITH OR OF REASONABLE CARE, FOR NEGLIGENCE, AND FOR ANY OTHER PECUNIARY OR OTHER LOSS WHATSOEVER) ARISING OUT OF OR IN ANYWAY RELATED TO THE USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE THE PRODUCT, THE PROVISION OF OR FAILURE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT OR OTHER SERVICES, INFORMATION, SOFTWARE, AND RELATED CONTENT THROUGH THE PRODUCT OR OTHERWISE ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THE PRODUCT, OR OTHERWISE UNDER OR IN CONNECTION WITH ANY PROVISION OF THIS EULA, EVEN IN THE EVENT OF THE FAULT, TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE), STRICT LIABILITY, BREACH OF CONTRACT OR BREACH OF WARRANTY OF THE COMPANY OR ANY SUPPLIER, AND EVEN IF THE COMPANY OR ANY SUPPLIER HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

5. DERIVATIVE WORKS
By agreeing to the EULA you grant the Company an exclusive license to use all works derived from installing the Product, the use of the Product or while thinking or dreaming of the Product. You agree to let the Company exploit your works without any further consent, and with no expectation of compensation of any kind.

6. CONSENT TO USE OF DATA
You agree that the Company and its affiliates may collect and use information gathered in any manner as part of the product support services provided to you, if any, related to the Product. The Company may use this information to improve our products or to provide customized services or it might just sell it to make a buck. The Company discloses this information to others, possibly in a form that personally identifies you.

7. SPEAKING OF THE COMPANY
By agreeing to this EULA, you agree to not speak ill of the Company, nor to question its products, policies or this agreement, particularly to any barrister, councillor, solicitor, lawyer, judge, doctor, blogger or politician. You agree to say only only nice things about the Company, its suppliers and its Product. You may not disclose the terms of this EULA with anyone.

8. PROMISE OF FIRSTBORN
Since you are not reading this EULA anyway, you agree to give the Company non-transferable ownership of your firstborn child, to be delivered promptly to the Company headquarters by the time the child has reached the age of seven (7). Go to http://biggreedysoftwarecompany.com/children.asp for specific instructions on how and where to deliver the child.

9.INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS
The Product is protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws and treaties. The Company or its suppliers own the title, copyright, and other intellectual property rights in the Product. The Product is licensed, not sold and you are only being allowed to use it by our good graces.

10. THREATS
Failure to abide by the terms of this EULA will give rise to civil liability which the Company will prosecute to the maximum extent of the law. You will be sued repeatedly some far away state until you are broke and agents of the Company come to repossess your house. You, your children and their children after them will be encumbered with great debt, hardship and shame, all because you dared to defy this End-User License Agreement.

EULAID: BGSC_pro_EN

2008/1/19

The people in my trash

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 19:34

I come down the stairs from the new office where I’ve been working to get it ready and I hear some shuffling by the stairs. When I get down, a man and a woman are standing by the front door to the building. Not unusual, a lot of people do this waiting for cabs and the like and I’ve never had a problem with it. The odd thing was, I swear I glimpsed the fella moving away from the two garbage bags sitting at the bottom of the stairs. It’s where I keep them before they go to the curb. Was he looking through them?

They pay me no attention as I walk back to the van to find some cables. They pay no attention as I walk back and go up the stairs.

I sort through junk for a while and when I have load of cardboard for recycling I head back downstairs. Sometime in the last 15 minutes the oddest thing has happened. The garbage bags are gone. I think those people stole my trash. I look out the front door, but of course the pair are long gone.

I’m not sure what they think they’re going to find in those bags. All computer-related hardware is recycled and not put at the curb. Things like credit card numbers are ripped up. Passwords too, and even if you get a whole one, they are rarely associated with actual account names. They might get names and telephone numbers from the service tickets, but this is hardly a score — you can find the same thing in the phone book. Mostly they are going to find a lot of useless packing material, solicitations, chewed up apple cores, empty coffee cups and dead sushi containers. Not sure why they thought it was a good haul, but hey, they’ve just saved me two garbage tags.

I know what’s going to happen next. After they figure out that there is nothing useful in those bags, they’re going to dump them somewhere in town. Being a respectable sort of businessman, I don’t want people to think anything is off and I’m dumping trash illegally, so I call the cops. Not 911, just the local number.

Hey. I’m not sure if this is a waste of your time or not, but I think I need to report a theft.

What was stolen?

Umm… two bags of garbage from the front of my shop. I haven’t the faintest idea why. I’m thinking you’re going to find them somewhere in town and I don’t want you to think that I’ve been, you know, dumping garbage around town.

To the credit of the operator at the police station, she doesn’t laugh, she takes down the details I give her and tells me it’s been noted. I tell her I don’t really care to be notified if the cops actually find my ‘property’. Just throw the stuff away.

I can just imagine the two humping down the street with two green garbage bags, thinking they’ve just hit paydirt. Good luck with my trash, folks.

2008/1/18

666

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 13:18

should i be worried about pushing the publish button?

all kinds of bloggers have had six hundred and sixty six posts and nothing bad ever happened to them. not that i know of, anyway. hmm…unless they all just deleted the evil posts and moved on to the next one. best not to think about it.

but for some irrational reason, i refuse to put a real post here. don’t any real content to be known as post #666. what if it became very popular? i think that would be profoundly unlucky.

so take that, mr satan guy! yer not getting a word out of me…

2008/1/15

Big Scenes on a Little Budget

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 21:33

This video is kinda cool. A bunch of guys were hired to re-create the Omaha beach landings of World War Two, Saving Private Ryan style, for a BBC documentary. It took Steven Spielberg around a thousand extras and some 11 million dollars. These guys did it with 3 extras, pocket change and some skillful editing. The poor actors went up and down the Normandy beach a zillion times in a zillion different ways so they could be composited into a massive invading army.

I don’t care what anyone says, the final footage, while not as good as Spielberg’s, is still pretty damn good, especially considering the tiny amount of money involved.

Update: Youtube response to this short video was so overwhelmingly positive the Beeb has decided to air the documentary again.

/. kk

2008/1/12

Niacin Flush

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 13:12

Not the band, no, just me taking too much of a good thing.

I take a B-complex vitamin supplement because I read somewhere it helps to regulate stress hormones and I have a lot of stress in my life. Hey, don’t laugh, it actually seems to work. No idea if it’s a placebo effect or what, but seven bucks a month for piece of mind, why not? Besides, vitamins are good for you, right?

My current brand of vitamins tasted like ass and I’d been out of them for weeks so I thought I might try something new. So while picking up some things at the grocery store, I got myself a different brand of B-complex vitamins.

When I get them home, I realize I’ve grabbed the wrong jar. Instead of regular B supplements, I have grabbed a container of Mega-Awesome-Ass-Kicking-Super-B-Complex vitamins. Now with 200% more B3! Whatever. They’re good for you, right? Next morning, I swallow one of the stronger pills, wash it down with a bagel and a cup of OJ and go to work.

Maybe forty minutes later I’m busy fixing a laptop when a rather uncomfortable feeling washes over my body like a wave:

  • hot
  • sweating
  • very flushed, even on my neck and flanks
  • my ass and thighs burn
  • my skin is crawling and itching like a motherfucker

Gotta be the new pills. The only thing I did different this morning. I know that B supplements can sometimes make you flush and turn your pee neon yellow, but this is nuts. The bottoms of my feet itch. The tops of my ears itch. My fingernails fucking itch! I scratch furiously as I try to figure out what the hell is happening to me.

What I have is apparently called a niacin flush, an occasional harmless reaction to large does (eg. over 100mg) of vitamin B3. Harmless, eh? I want to scratch my own skin off. 50mg is the normal amount of niacin I’ve been taking. I just ate down 250mg, which I’m getting the notion is way too much for me.*

But according to the mega-dose vitamin crowd this is a good sign. My body is now fully saturated with happy niacin, yay! According to them I am:

  • making my cholesterol lower
  • removing toxic chemicals from my body
  • feeding underfed areas of my body (whatever the hell that is supposed to mean)
  • protecting my heart from disease
  • getting stronger
  • sleeping better
  • reducing stress
  • enhancing a sense of well-being
  • stimulating my skin (yeah, no shit!)
  • enhancing my erection

Useful as a sex aid… well that’s just shiny. Maybe it’s a turn-on for some to watch your partner flop around with the heebie jeebies, but not my cup of tea. Some of these folks take thousands of milligrams of the stuff a day and say they’ll live forever. You know, just because it’s water soluble and hard to overdose on doesn’t mean you should take a metric assload of the stuff. I’m not sure what they feel like after breakfast, but I’m screwed up. I’ve made a big mistake with my pills here.

The episode lasts maybe forty minutes. After that an odd sense of warmth set in that lasted well into the afternoon. Enough body hacking for today. Vitamins are supposed to make you feel better and not mess you up. I think the new pills are going bye-bye.

* Health Canada says that 18mg is all I need in a day and a balanced diet will supply it.

2008/1/8

Top 15 Things of 2007

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 20:04

Every blogger is entitled to post a list!

15. Poor Bastard of Year: Conrad Black
Even though there are plenty of domestic crooks in the U.S., Black was singled out and convicted of fraud. I don’t know precisely what he did wrong — I don’t think many people do — but whatever it was it must have been very bad because they gave him 78 months in the slam for it. Black was an arrogant prick and probably had it coming, but six and a half years? Sorry about your luck, mate.

14. Pretty Gadget of the Year: iPhone
After having played with one for a while, I’m still convinced that the device is more about the pretty than it is about the practical. Still, it is one of the smartest looking electronic gadgets I’ve played with in a while and its sleek design makes all your friends jealous. Until they realize that you paid $600 for it.

13. Software Screwup of the Year: Windows Vista
Hyped as the next generation of PC operating systems, Windows Vista has proven to be nothing more than a buggy face-lift of Windows XP. The scope of the failure is remarkable: even though they had thousands of programmers, billions of dollars and a five year development cycle, Microsoft still only managed to deliver a passable chess game and a cool task switcher. And as a bonus, it’s slow as hell! Microsoft apologists still herald Vista as the next great leap of course, and that’s their prerogative, though I reckon they privately wonder why their brand new quad core computers seem slower than the old junker in the basement.

12. Hack of the Year: Dan Egerstad Cracks Tor
Or rather, he publicly demonstrated that people didn’t understand the tool they were using. The free Tor service is used around the world to mask the origin of Internet sessions, mostly for finding porn, but also sometimes for sensitive government work. The only problem is masking the client’s origin is all that Tor does and apparently most of its users don’t realize this. Tor does not protect or encrypt the traffic its volunteer nodes are forwarding. All Egerstad needed to do to ‘break’ it was install a node, watch the traffic and collect data. He gained access to hundreds of high-value government email accounts and yet when he told governments about this problem, they paid no attention. That was, until he posted the information publicly and then — surprise, surprise — all hell broke loose.

11. Scientific Achievement of the Year: Fluorescent Cats
It’s important, not so much because the researchers were able to clone mammals with modified genes, but because they did it in such a blatant way, producing glow-in-the-dark cats. While the goal of the research is noble, and useful, the delivery is troubling. Such experiments mark the beginning of capricious genetic engineering which is a dark and dangerous road to be going down. Look for two-headed poodles next.

10. Political Event of the Year: The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto
It’s been a while since such an influential politician was murdered. She was once the President of Pakistan, and still a major player in that nation’s politics. By most accounts she was a competent leader and obviously loyal to her people. The problem for some, I suspect, was that she was a woman. And for all the attention being paid to the politics of the situation, it’s easy to forget she was also a wife and a mother. So sadly, the bad guys got what they wanted: an important person was killed so a nation could be thrown into chaos.

9. Album of the Year: In Rainbows
In addition to being critically acclaimed, Radiohead’s new album dared to do something different. A high-quality version of it was sold online for whatever fans wanted to pay, even nothing. This is the first time such a high profile band has done so. And to the surprise and possibly terror of recording industry executives around the world, many of the fans offered money and by some estimates Radiohead has made millions off of the endeavor. Is this the beginning of the end of the ‘industry’ part of the music industry? You already know what I think of it. Time will tell.

8. Film of the Year: 300
Over the top violence, Greeks with Scottish accents, dodgy historical accuracy, corny dialog and more six packs than a liquor store, yet 300 still managed to be entertaining. In addition to making big money for its studio, it generated astounding amounts of press, both good and bad, and turned Gerald Butler into an sex icon for both women and men. Though not particularly historically accurate, 300 offered a simple, exaggerated, emotional and (dare I say it?) inspirational story told in exactly the outrageous way the ancient Greeks liked to tell their stories. Herodotus would have loved it.

7. Video Game of the Year: Portal

Intended as merely the ‘extra’ game in Valve’s Orange Box, Portal has gone on to outshine the rest of the titles included. The odd game play, moist cake, brilliant black humour, and that messed up little song… no other video game has generated so many positive reviews this year, not even Halo 3. Even Croshaw liked it and he’s a hard guy to please. Portal is proof that making an entertaining game is as much about the writing as it is about the code.

6. Kiss of the Year: Richard Gere and Shilpa Shetty
Actors are a touchy-feely bunch, we just accept it as normal around here, but apparently they don’t in India. Gere caused an uproar there when he gave a playful kiss on the cheek to fellow actor Shetty at a AIDS awareness event. People were not amused and soon effigies of the man were ablaze. Protests were held, people jumped and screamed and thousands marched in the streets. A court in India was apparently outraged enough to issue a warrant for their arrests, an order which was overturned later by the supreme court. Bet you can’t do all that with your kisser.

5. Stunt Casting of the Year: Kylie Minogue in Doctor Who
Americans might scratch their heads at this one, but in much of the Commonwealth, the plucky pop-singer is considered a megastar. Maybe not so much in Canada, but don’t lie, you did The Locomotion too. Casting her as Astrid Peth in the Voyage of the Damned Christmas special is the British equivalent of casting Madonna for a role in Lost. And yeah, “Astrid” is an anagram of “Tardis” (this is Davies we’re talking about here!)

4. Person of the Year: George W. Bush
Even Britney Spears doesn’t generate as much press as Dubya does. A continuing source of inspiration for idiots around the world, the figurehead President nods and smiles while his back room cronies forge ahead in their in quest to bankrupt and destroy the most powerful nation in the world. What’s truly spectacular about Bush is his ability to brush off the criticism and truck merrily along, seemingly oblivious to just how much he sucks and how bad America is getting under his watch. What’s even more incredible is this is his second term, seemingly putting him in the same league as Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton.

3. Canadian of the Year: General Rick Hillier
The day of his promotion to the Chief of Defence Staff of the Canadian Forces, Hillier said, right in front of the Prime Minister, “In this country, we could probably not give enough resources to the men and women to do all the things that we ask them to do. But we can give them too little, and that is what we are now doing. Remember them in your budgets.” Refusing to play political games, Hillier calls it like he sees it, even if it makes politicians look stupid. Harper doesn’t know what to do with the man. Thanks to Hillier’s not-so-subtle prodding, the Canadian Forces have actually been getting the equipment and leadership they’ve been lacking for so many years. Morale is high despite Canada’s involvement in an unpopular and increasingly futile conflict that has now claimed over 70 Canadian lives. It takes a big pair to be the Chief of Defence in Canada these days, but the General somehow makes it look easy.

2. Most Expensive Endeavor in Human History: Iraq
2007 is the year human beings spent more money on one project than any other in history. At over one trillion dollars, Iraq is approaching ten times the adjusted cost of the Apollo program, and by some estimates has now passed the monetary cost of World War Two (though thankfully not the human cost). And unlike the Apollo program, which successfully put a man on the Moon, and World War Two, which successfully defeated the Nazis, Iraq continues to be a failure. What has been accomplished in Iraq again? Oh right, the Americans demolished a functional, stable, secular Middle East nation and replaced it with… anarchy. Good job guys. Not to put too fine a point on it, there are better things to be spending the money on.

1. Blogger of the Year: Michael Geist
Michael Geist is different than other bloggers. While most bloggers have a focus on their Internet life, Geist instead focuses on the meatspace, and how to fix the legal rules that govern the Canadian portion of it. A law professor, his focus on justice, copyright and the future of fair use is an oasis of reason in a political landscape increasingly corrupted by big media and their big money. Geist blogs relentlessly and tirelessly to raise awareness of copyright and fair use issues. Because of his efforts, tens of thousands of Canadians have became aware of our government’s attempts to pass crazy, American-like intellectual property laws. The resulting protest lead to a delay to the introduction of a contentious intellectual property bill. Not many bloggers can make the claim that their efforts can make an entire government pause. Geist can.

2008/1/6

How To Make Money Selling Music Online

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 17:40

Free music downloads. The blight of the music industry, so the industry says, but are they really, or are they simply an evolution to how music is distributed and how artists are compensated? With a simple thought experiment, I’ll show they are an opportunity for artists to make more money and while I’m at it, I’ll figure out how much money Radiohead made on their last album.

I’m not going to go into whether the practice of downloading free music is morally right or wrong because that doesn’t matter any more. It is happening right now and there is no way of stopping it, short of passing ridiculous laws.* I will say though, that someone has to pay something, because artists need food and shelter, just like you do.

There has been only one large-scale attempt to put legitimate free downloads alongside commercial sales: Radiohead’s current album In Rainbows, which is offered for download at any price the downloader wants, including zero. Radiohead has released no sales figures, but I think it was a smashing financial success.

Making money from free music downloads starts with a simple idea: music has only ever been sold to fans of the artist. People who don’t like the artist, who are indifferent or don’t know about them do not buy the artist’s music. If it’s offered free they might listen, but otherwise they don’t buy. This seems so simple, but the way the music industry has been going on lately it’s like they don’t grok this.

It is also important to note that the fans have always been willing to pay, but these days they feel they are paying too much. Prior to the widespread adoption of file sharing technology, music fans had no choice but to dish out money for their favourite artists and the dedicated fans did. The rest listened for free on the radio or went over to a friend’s house. Since the fans had nothing else to compare it to, they figured that 25 bucks for an album was a bargain. After all, they could have charged $50.

But these days, the fan sees his friends downloading the album for nothing while he ponies up that $25. He wants to support his bands, but at $25 a pop? Especially when he can get it for free…

It should be pretty obvious to everyone by now that people will download for free whatever tickles their fancy. But I have found that even though they can do this, they are still willing to support artists. People are willing to support artists financially, but only the ones they really like. As mentioned above, this has probably always been the case, but the artificial nature of the music industry has masked this behavior by manipulating the supply.

Here are some hard numbers from doing data recoveries on people’s computers.

Roughly 75% of the personal computers we see in the shop have free downloaded music on them (39 out of 50 computers observed).

Less than 10 percent have purchased iTunes tracks (3/50)

This tells us that many people download free music, but hardly anyone purchases it from record industry sanctioned online stores. Given things like copy protection, this comes as no surprise.

Related to this, I’ve asked about two dozen people over the last few months: “Is downloading music against the law?” Most people I asked said “yes” and only one person knew that it was perfectly legal to download music in Canada (though not necessarily without civil liability). Many people conflate criminal liability with civil liability. But either way, people don’t seem to think it is a crime or a risk, or even wrong, because three quarters of them do it anyway.

Another interesting thing to note, is while almost everyone I know downloads free music, they all still purchase CDs despite being able to download anything they want for free. I don’t have a good way of knowing how much they are buying, but they are still buying music in the traditional way. So people are still willing to pay for music.

Curious about these things, I asked a series of questions to various people, friends and customers to get an idea if my hypothesis had any merit. This is not a real study, but an informal one meant only to gauge the waters.

When asked how many favourite artists someone had, artists they would pay to see in concert and pay money for produced albums, the average number worked out to around 10. This jives with my own personal experience, as I have about 10 music artists I ‘follow’.

I asked people if $1 for a single MP3 track was a fair price. Three quarters didn’t think so. Many thought you should pay $1 for a MP3 track only if you like it. Otherwise you shouldn’t pay. When I asked if it is a fair price for a track they like from an artist they like, at least three quarters said yes, and maybe a third said more is not unreasonable. One fellow even said he would pay $5 bucks for his favourite track if the rest of album was free.

When I asked what a fair price for a physical CD from an artist you like the average response was around $10. I asked around two dozen people I know if $5 is a fair price for a guaranteed high-quality, DRM-free album download from an artist you like and three quarters or so said yes. But when asked if they knew they could get the same thing for free from a friend would they copy it, three quarters also said yes. Ok, so people still like to copy.

But the real interesting question is: if an artist you liked asked you donate something, anything to help him pay for the album, over three quarters said yes. Three quarters also suggested they could financially help artists they liked in other ways by purchasing swag or going to concerts, which most believed made the artist more money (which I believe is true in most cases).

This is not a scientific study by any means, but what I get out of these responses is that most people will:

  • pay for music they really like, if they have to, or if the situation calls for it
  • download and share music if they can
  • download music if it is available for free
  • give money to artists they like, if asked
  • five dollars is not an unreasonable donation/sale price/margin for the artist

So people want to support their favourite artists and are willing to give them money in some way. Five bucks is also not an unreasonable average to get from this. Most people who aren’t totally poor think nothing of spending a fiver on something trivial. In Canada, a large coffee and a donut is $3-5; millions of variations on this combination are sold daily in this country.

I will now make an assumption. While around 75 percent of the people I talked to say they would give an average of $5 to an artist they liked, only a third actually will. This assumption is based in part on comScore’s survey which found that 60% of downloaders paid nothing for In Rainbows. A variety of factors contribute to this, forgetfulness, laziness, ease of copying, ease of free downloads, etc… It also found that those who paid offered an average of £2.90, which is around $5.

Keep in mind that this completely ignores the millions of additional indifferent listeners who will download the album as well. They are not fans, and would have never paid for the album if they had to. They are not factors. What we are focusing on is the 33 percent of genuine fans donating an average of $5. This is the beginning of a financial model. Let’s apply it to In Rainbows.

Radiohead’s last album, Hail to the Thief, has sold nearly one million copies in the U.S. alone, according to Wikipedia. So that’s at least one million fans who are willing to lay out money for their albums. It is also safe to assume they would all want to get this one too. Based on the thought experiment above, we can estimate Radiohead’s gross:

1 000 000 x 0.33 x $5 = $1 650 000

1.6 million is chump change to a large music company but to a band this is a considerable sum of money and a lot more than artists typically earn off of album sales. More importantly, not a dime of it goes to any record company, the band gets to keep it all after the expenses are paid. And this is on top of the sales of the physical box set, touring, merchandise sales and any other economic activity the the band has going on. Based on these simple calculations, Radiohead has struck it rich. It would seem this is the way to sell music online. Politely ask people for a donation, and many will give. Who would have thought?

It shouldn’t seem surprising to anyone that cutting out the middleman allows the seller to make more money. But it does explain nicely why the RIAA is fighting as hard as they are. Imagine if all musicians sold their music like Radiohead did? There would be no need for record companies.

So if you are a record company, what are you to do? I have some ideas on that too, but that’s another post.

* Indeed, even massive lawsuits do not seem to work in the U.S. I figure the only way to stop people from downloading music is to make it a capital crime. It would only take an execution or two. Of course, any society that has got to the point where it prosecutes music downloaders like mass murderers needs to overthrow their government because such a law is fucking insane.

2008/1/2

FCP is Changing

Filed under: General — cobolhacker @ 15:00

A lot of people don’t know it, but FCP has been operating continuously for over 13 years, ten of those years in Stratford and eight of those ten at our current location at 121 Ontario Street on the main floor. In fact, I believe there is only one other computer shop in town which has been running for longer.

But you can’t roll along for eight years in the computer industry without some kind of change. Change is a constant in this line of work and if you are unwilling to change, after a while you won’t be able to provide your customers with a good product.

So while we’ve all grown fond of our current location, the time has come to get better digs in order to serve our customers better. So we are moving… but only about thirty feet. Our new location will still be at 121 Ontario Street, just up the stairs at the front. The location is bigger and quieter; moving also gives us the opportunity to redesign the layout of the shop to make it more efficient in a location which is better suited to our needs. It’s also curiously decorated, what with having been a clothing store once.

Moving the shop is part of a larger change to how we do business at FCP. The demand for service work is increasing while at the same time the demand for retail is declining. Once upon a time, the only place to get computer hardware was at a dedicated computer shop and there was easy money to be made from retail. Those days are long over. The Internet, big box stores and the like do a better job of serving the retail market and can provide a better selection of retail goodies then we ever could.

So, as of the first of January, all retail operations will stop and the shop will be moved up the stairs. No attempt will be made to staff the new shop at regular hours like a retail store and appointments will become standard practice. As always, you are welcome to stop by if you like, but honestly, we would recommend a phone call first so you’re not disappointed.

If you are an existing business customer the change won’t affect you as on-site will continue as usual. Home customers looking for affordable in-shop repair will need only to make appointments to drop off their systems, or if desired, schedule a pickup. If you are a bit leery of going up stairs with a big, heavy computer we’re more than happy to come down and take it up for you.

Loyal customers who have purchased all their hardware from us and want to keep on purchasing their hardware from us also needn’t worry. We’re still selling hardware, just without all the show. Our hardware focus will now be on professional deployments, rather than over the counter stuff (although we’ll still have some of that too). The Computer Systems Division will be moving away from inexpensive package designs in favour of more flexible and robust custom builds. Anyone who deals with us on a regular basis knows hardware has been moving in this direction for years — now it is official.

We’re offering some new services:

  • Pickup ($5) and delivery ($5) services
  • Periodic maintenance contracts
  • Computer recycling services, which in most cases will be free
  • IT and Internet strategy consulting services
  • IT security consulting services

In a way, we are going back to our roots. FCP started in a basement before it was moved to a tiny office on the second floor of a Waterloo St. property. Our eight year experiment with having a storefront has been fun but the time is right to move forward. Making this change makes us more flexible, more nimble and better equipped to keep the computers running which is what the computer service business is all about.

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